Investor takeaway
Do not judge off-plan from one headline
Compare the project, payment plan, handover timing, developer context and the surrounding community evidence before requesting availability.
Dubai’s real estate market is set to witness a significant slowdown in new residential handovers in 2025 and 2026, with just over half of the projected units expected to be completed. However, a sharp increase in supply is projected for 2027, which may shift the market dynamics considerably, according to Morgan’s International Realty.
Key Highlights:
- 2025 Completion Rate: Only 22,896 units (62%) expected out of 37,171 forecasted
- 2026 Completion Rate: Just 48% expected (34,740 of 71,613 units)
- Combined 2025–26: Only 57,636 units likely to be delivered out of 108,784 forecasted (approx. 53%)
- Fitch Data (2022–2024): Only 97,000 out of 174,000 units delivered (56% completion rate)
- Delays Attributed To: Contractor shortages, funding delays, buyer payments, and sales timelines
- Key Delivery Areas for 2025: Studio City, Sobha Hartland, JVC, JLT, and Al Furjan
- Key Delivery Areas for 2026: JVC, Azizi Venice, DAMAC Lagoons, Business Bay, and Arjan
- 2027 Outlook: A projected 70,537 units to be handed over — double Dubai’s five-year average
- Top Areas in 2027: JVC, Business Bay, Azizi Venice, Dubai Hills Estate, and Creek Harbour
- JVC to Lead Supply: 16,852 units expected between 2025 and 2027
- Market Impact: Potential price pressure in high-supply zones like JVC and Business Bay due to oversupply
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